On Michigan, Florida, and Super Delegates- An Unpopular Opinion.

If you haven't noticed all of the outrage lately over the Michigan/Florida debacle at this site, then you're probably brand new and have chosen to read this diary first.   Lucky you.

I'm going to present my take on this whole mess.  I do so from the perspective of an Obama supporter who tries to be open-minded and objective.  I do so knowing full well that there'll be a lot of accusations thrown at me.  Some new, some old.  The old ones are pretty well known- cultist, thug, brown shirt.  Don't throw that last one at me unless you are aching for a retarded flame war.

I'm going to get super delegates out of the way.   Barack Obama and his campaign have NOT called for the rules being changed.  They have not accused anyone of trying to change the rules by trying to use super delegates to win in the overall delegate count.  What they have argued is that the pledged delegate leader should be the front runner and presumptive nominee.

You know what?  They are right.  They should be unless some kind of ruinous scandal breaks out.  Many of you will point to Wright with the morbid hope that Wright-gate destroys Barack Obama, and proclaim that super delegates should abandon Obama for Clinton as her campaign has done( http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/20/us/pol itics/20memo.html?_r=1&ref=politics& amp;oref=slogin ).

Apparently, that wasn't enough to convince Governor Bill Richardson, who Carville has compared to Judas(does that make Hillary Jesus Christ?).  It wasn't enough to prevent the Republican mayor of Camp Hill, Lou Thieblemont, from letting the whole world know that he's switching parties and voting for Obama.  It wasn't enough to stop a prominent conservative legal scholar, once head of the Office of Legal Counsel to Reagan and Bush senior, a man by the name of Douglas Kmiec.  Another Republican who is sick and tired by what his party has offered him, and who has instead endorsed a Democrat.   It wasn't enough to prevent other Republicans ( http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/2 0080324_Why_abiding_Republican_has_switc hed_his_party.html ) from converting to the Democratic party to fight back against the failed policies of the Republican Party.

I'll stop praising Obama to avoid scaring off anymore Clinton supporters.

Now.. before we delve into the mess surrounding Florida and Michigan, let's revisit.  Certain states were authorized to conduct a primary or caucus before February 5th.  They were Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.   Michigan and Florida moved ahead(mostly Michigan, Florida was dragged along).

Everyone agreed to not campaign in Florida and Michigan.  No one can deny that.  Obama, Edwards, Richardson, and Biden took their names off of the ballot.  Gravel, Kucinich, Dodd, and Clinton kept their names on.  Since then, Dodd has endorsed Barack Obama.  Kucinich has all but endorsed Obama.  I think Gravel got confused and wandered into the Green Party.

Here is the final pledge in question;  http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sectio ns/news/070831_Final_Pledge.pdf

I quote;

..Democratic Candidate for President, pledge I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as "campaigning" is defined by the rules and regulationss of the DNC.

The sentiment is pretty clear, no matter what the definition of "is" really is.  Of course, Clinton's campaign is right to argue what they actually signed onto.  Now, as I mentioned earlier, Florida was dragged along for the ride.  Let's face it, the state party is horrendous down there.  So I'm going to detour from discussing both Florida and Michigan and will instead discuss Michigan first by itself.

"You know, it's clear this election they're having isn't going to count for anything."

Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton, October 11th, 2007 on New Hampshire Public Radio, when discussing the controversy around Michigan's scheduled primary.

What's missing from here?  Outrage.  The outrage I encounter every time I come here.  From her supporters, from her campaign, from the lady herself.  Why was there no outrage then?  A fear of angering the people of New Hampshire, of Iowa, of South Carolina, of Nevada?   Probably.  Why is there outrage now?  We all know why.

From my perspective, the bottom line is what I see this outrage as.  Strategically delayed.  Delayed outage.  Fake outrage.   Hannityesque in its cries for freedom and equality.  I did not hear anyone arguing back then for Florida and Michigan, especially not her campaign.  In fact, I only heard this "outrage" when it was clear that Clinton would've done quite well in those states.  It became louder when she "did" do quite well in those states.

And there you have it.   My view on what is, at the very least, delayed outrage.   Now, don't get me wrong- Michigan and Florida need to be seated in some fashion.  Yet this constant harping about Michigan and Florida isn't just silly, it's outright foolish.  Like it or not, Obama has followed the rules that were agreed to.  Way back when before Clinton became outraged about all of this.  Back when she was tactically silent about it.  This notion that Obama should throw her a bone is pretty hollow of anything except bias.  He may not be calling her to drop out, but he like many others want this brawl of a nomination to end before either candidate is left politically bloodied and comatose.

So, I'm sorry to tell you that your "outrage" is too little too LATE.  Go ahead, continue claiming that Obama is the one disenfranchising Michigan and Florida.   Claim that his supporters "brown shirt" super delegates.  Claim that they take over caucuses with their young able bodies in a thuggish manner with thuggish lawyers as back up.

Continue indirectly making the hollow case for four more years of the failed policies of the Republican Party.   Just do me a favor and admit that your "outrage" is what it is- carefully delayed.



Display:


Tips for delayed-outrage, (2.00 / 1)

and Rec's for strategy.


"Behold, I send you out as sheep amidst the wolves! Therefore, be as wise as a serpent, And as harmless as a dove."
by Setrak on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:22:07 PM EST

A penny for your thoughts, (2.00 / 1)

but no more than that.


That's it, baby; let's go win this election!
by Beltway Dem on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:26:03 PM EST

Nope... (2.00 / 1)

Not gonna work Setrak.

Obama blocked the revotes. Obama is responsible for disenfranchising FL and MI. Now he has to deal with the consequences.


by MediaFreeze on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:36:29 PM EST

Re: Nope... (2.00 / 0)

Hillary disenfranchised them when she delayed speaking up on the issue until it was too late.  


by furiousxgeorge on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:39:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nope... (2.00 / 1)

Obama set up every roadblock he could think of. He sent his lawyers in to screw up the process. This is his gambit. He bears the responsibility.


by MediaFreeze on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:57:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

sorry, but (none / 0)

Nothing Obama could do would have mattered if Hillary had spoken up before the race was half over.


by furiousxgeorge on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 09:06:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nope... (2.00 / 1)

We are not disenfranchised... nor were we...  We were able to vote...  we had our votes counted for every race and every issue except one.  And we knew that one wouldn't count going in.  That is not disenfranchisement.  No one stripped our ability to vote, we were able to do so.

I realize this is an attractive talking point since it is an ugly word, but it is the wrong word to attach to this situation.

Oh, and Obama is the wrong person to blame.  The blame rightly lies with the states themselves.  ALL of the candidates signed off on the DNC decision.  If there was a time for outrage, it has long past.

Where was this chorus of democracy over the summer when this was being decided.


McCain/Palin... even scarier than Bush/Cheney... and that's saying something!
by JenKinFLA on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:49:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

H. Wolfson voted for disenfranchising FL and MI (none / 0)

He is to blame as more than Obama is.


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 09:15:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bull... (none / 0)

In the last three weeks the person that adopted a campaign strategy of blocking the revotes was Obama (probably it was Axelrod's idea, but still...). He made sure that they would run out of time while he threw up every objection and obstacle. The record is clear. I'll post three weeks of diaries if you want, or just og to my diaries.

No, the responsibility for fixing this mess is his. He's the one who created it, and he's the one who wants to be president.

My guess is that he continues to stonewall. It seems to me that winning the nomination is more important to him than winning the presidency, and that is something that all Dems should take notice of.


by MediaFreeze on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 09:22:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Do You Doubt (none / 0)

that if the roles were reversed that Mark Penn would advise Hillary to stonewall too?


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 09:53:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do You Doubt (none / 0)

I doubt it.

I've got Mark Penn figured as a guy who wants to win the White House...


by MediaFreeze on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 12:06:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The path to fuckup has way been established... (2.00 / 0)

now it should be all about fixing it. Since we're down to where every delegate is supposed to count and a supposed 50 state strategy, and supposedly a nation where every vote matters, then it's time to stop whining about the fuckup and fix it.

Obama stopping the vote is leaving himself open to being comparable to Bush in 2000.

Hillary, though hypocritical earlier, is actually right in the need for a revote. Since it's such a close contest for a president representing all 50 states then whatever other fuckup is going to come along this season, then at least let us get that right.

Since we're looking at a lost in the general either way, then let's all lose on the right side of people's votes being actually counted. That way no one can point the finger saying....if only you'd let my vote count MAYBE we would have won.

Long-term thinking and consequences anyone?


It's an election, not an auction.
by cosbo on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:47:58 PM EST

Re: The path to fuckup has way been established... (2.00 / 1)

Obama being compared to Bush by whom...?  Clinton supporters?  I guarantee you that the GOP won't compare the two of them.


McCain/Palin... even scarier than Bush/Cheney... and that's saying something!
by JenKinFLA on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:51:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama being compared to Bush in (2.00 / 0)

stopping the vote. Do you all really think Clinton is going to drop it?


It's an election, not an auction.
by cosbo on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 09:04:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama being compared to Bush in (none / 0)

I don't think it is an apt nor a fair comparison...  and I don't think Democrats should compare other Democrats to Republicans if they can help it.


McCain/Palin... even scarier than Bush/Cheney... and that's saying something!
by JenKinFLA on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:40:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Right now... (2.00 / 1)

One in four Florida Democrats say that they will skip the general election. So we lose.

This is what Obama's brilliant primary strategy has done to the Democratic Party. And, I will not stop saying that Obama is the current cause of the obstruction, because he is.


by MediaFreeze on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:54:36 PM EST

Re: Right now... (none / 0)

And how many Florida Democrats want to go out and vote again?

The way the state Democratic party handled the situation was horrendous.  Almost as bad as Schultz.


"Behold, I send you out as sheep amidst the wolves! Therefore, be as wise as a serpent, And as harmless as a dove."
by Setrak on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:59:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, here's the thing. (none / 0)

Let's get the obvious out of the way: there's no question that the positions of the camps would be reversed if the results in FL and MI were different.  So all of the fake outrage over Obama's '48-state-strategy' and 'disenfranchisement' should be treated with little more than amused derision.

That said, we have two objectives here (and by we, I mean we Democrats, no matter where we stand in this ridiculously divisive primary): one is to safeguard DNC oversight over the process, and that requires penalties for those states that placed their primaries ahead of the cut-off date. If there is no penalty, the 2012 primaries will be over by Christmas 2011, because individual states want to increase their influence and would be shown that there is no penalty for ignoring the DNC's authority to govern the process.

The other is to ensure that the people of FL and MI get their voices heard. It would be absurd to seat the existing delegations, because they are the result of contests which would have had different results if all the candidates had campaigned there. Hillary held a campaign-style fundraiser, Obama had some ad spillover, that doesn't count.

The only right answer to this mess for the good of the party is a re-vote. Problem is, that doesn't seem to be happening. And it's a crying shame, because that will cast the legitimacy of the eventual winner, even if Hillary pulls off a miracle, into doubt.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:56:16 PM EST

Re: Well, here's the thing. (none / 0)

I doubt it. The thing that was clear from the start of the Obama obstruction marathon was that it was ultimately destructive to the Democrats. I do not think Hillary would have gone there. He was warned plenty and he soldiered on with the roadblocks and the obstructions. This is his mess right now. He had better do something pro-active to fix it. That's what leadership is all about.


by MediaFreeze on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 09:00:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nah. (none / 0)

If Hillary actually cared about enfranchising voters as a matter of principle, she wouldn't have gone all-out to disenfranchise Iowa college students and Nevada union members. So again, this concern of hers is so clearly situational that even the most hardened partisan shouldn't even try to make that argument with a straight face.

That said, should Obama step up and show leadership? Yes, he should. So should Hillary, by giving these states a chance for a fair re-vote. But as it is, he's leaving well enough alone, and she's still pretending that the primaries matter when she herself agreed they did not.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 09:20:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not the same thing at all... (none / 0)

I don't know what you are talking about in Iowa, but the Nevada legal challenge had merit. The cullinary union was making it easier to vote for their members than the rest of the state. Clinton came out and said that while they had nothing to do with the case, they supported the principle. It was a democratic principle. It got shot down, but it was the right side of the issue to be on.


by MediaFreeze on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 09:26:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On Michigan, Florida, and Super Delegates- An (none / 0)

Hillary will win the majority of the next primaries from now til June - she will have the momentum, and her poll numbers will go up from this.

She will poll better than Obama against McCain and the exit polls will show that her base has broadened.

The gap of pledged and popular vote will close. she may not overtake him, but she will have won every big state and all the swing states.

The SD's will not be able to ignore this information.

finally - whether you could FL/MI or not - the fact is WE KNOW the results and the truth will be seen that with these states Hillary will win.

The SD'S will choose Hillary in June - she will pick BO as her VP and we'll all live happily ever after....


by nikkid on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 12:25:57 AM EST


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